Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part II: Reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies

This is Part II of two papers evaluating the feasibility of providing all energy for all purposes (electric power, transportation, and heating/cooling), everywhere in the world, from wind, water, and the sun (WWS). In Part I, we described the prominent renewable energy plans that have been proposed and discussed the characteristics of WWS energy systems, the global demand for and availability of WWS energy, quantities and areas required forWWS infrastructure, and supplies of critical materials. Here, we discuss methods of addressing the variability of WWS energy to ensure that power supply reliably matches demand (including interconnecting geographically dispersed resources, using hydroelectricity, using demand-response management, storing electric power on site, over-sizing peak generation capacity and producing hydrogen with the excess, storing electric power in vehicle batteries, and forecasting weather to project energy supplies), the economics ofWWS generation and transmission, the economics of WWS use in transportation, and policy measures needed to enhance the viability of aWWS system.We find that the cost of energy in a 100%WWSwill be similar to the cost today.We conclude that barriers to a 100% conversion to WWS power worldwide are primarily social and political, not technological or even economic. & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Variability and reliability in a100%WWSenergy system inall regions of the world One of the major concerns with the use of energy supplies, such as wind, solar, and wave power, which produce variable output is whether such supplies can provide reliable sources of electric power second-by-second, daily, seasonally, and yearly. A new WWS energy infrastructure must be able to provide energy on demand at least as reliably as does the current infrastructure (e.g., De Carolis and Keith, 2005). In general, any electricity systemmust be able to respond to changes in demand over seconds, minutes, hours, seasons, and years, and must be able to accommodate unanticipated changes in the availability of generation. With the current system, electricity-system operators use ‘‘automatic generation control’’ (AGC) (or frequency regulation) to respond to variation on the order of seconds to a few minutes; spinning reserves to respond to variation on the order ofminutes to an hour; and peak-power generation to respond to hourly variation (De Carolis andKeith, 2005; Kempton and Tomic, 2005a; Electric Power Research Institute, 1997). AGC and spinning reserves have very low ll rights reserved. Delucchi), cost, typically less than 10% of the total cost of electricity (Kempton and Tomic, 2005a), and are likely to remain this inexpensive even with large amounts of wind power (EnerNex, 2010; DeCesaro et al., 2009), but peak-power generation can be very expensive. The main challenge for the current electricity system is that electric power demand varies during the day and during the year, while most supply (coal, nuclear, and geothermal) is constant during the day, which means that there is a difference to be made up by peakand gap-filling resources such as natural gas and hydropower. Another challenge to the current system is that extreme events and unplannedmaintenance can shut down plants unexpectedly. For example, unplanned maintenance can shut down coal plants, extreme heat waves can cause cooling water to warm sufficiently to shut down nuclear plants, supply disruptions can curtail the availability of natural gas, and droughts can reduce the availability of hydroelectricity. A WWS electricity system offers new challenges but also new opportunitieswith respect to reliablymeeting energy demands. On the positive side, WWS technologies generally suffer less downtime than do current electric power technologies. For example, the average coal plant in the US from 2000 to 2004 was down 6.5% of the year for unscheduled maintenance and 6.0% of the year for scheduled maintenance (North American Electric Reliability Corporation, 2009a), but modern wind turbines have a down time of only 0–2% over land and 0–5% over the ocean (Dong Energy et al., M.A. Delucchi, M.Z. Jacobson / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 1170–119